Guardiola and his thoughts

Super Hans of Peep Show (the crack addled maniac) may offer a helpful nugget of advice to Pep Guardiola at this trying time.

“You’ve been going round thinking thoughts your whole life, and looks where that’s got you.”

Perhaps it might be worth slightly altering it to fit the situation.

“You’ve been going round overthinking major Champions League knockout ties for the past 10 years or so, and look where that’s got you.”

And that was the case once again last night, as Manchester City crashed out of their Champions League quarter final against underdogs Lyon - 7th place this season in Ligue 1.

There is, of course, the caveat of the marginal/highly questionable decisions that went against them last night. And then that miss from Raheem Sterling that would had given City a late equaliser and the momentum going into extra time.

But really, it felt like the damage had been done before this.

Guardiola opted for a complete change in formation. His side lined up in a 3-4-1-2 with two nominally more holding midfielders in Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri sitting in front of a back three of Fernandinho, Eric Garcia and America Laporte.

It was a mystifyingly conservative line up. One that muted City’s usual flowing and creative brilliance until the introduction of Riyad Mahrez in the second half, and a return to a more familiar 4-3-3.

But by this point, the Citizens were already behind. City did equalise but were chasing the game, and ended up conceding due to leaving space in behind the defensive line - ironically something which Guardiola was presumably guarding against from the start with a back three.

But even when City were deploying a back three, they were still done by a ball in behind for Maxwel Cornet’s opener.

In short, Guardiola’s plan to paper over a vulnerability didn’t really work, and castrated City’s attack. Then when he reverted to the norm, City were chasing the game which exposed that vulnerability further.

But all this isn't to say that Guardiola shouldn't ever change his tactics to try and counter the opposition.

It more highlights that the distinction between making some slight tweaks to cause problems for the opposition, and vastly changing your entire formation.

Against Real Madrid, Guardiola deployed Phil Foden as an occasional false-nine, swooping in and out of central and wide positions with Gabriel Jesus. Importantly though, the 4-3-3 shape was still there, as was a superbly orchestrated press which was ultimately the undoing of the somewhat decadent Spanish champions.

It was obvious that Guardiola and his team had studied Real and made particular preparations in order to face them. The key was that they didn’t alter their entire structure while doing so.

Remarkably, it’s a problem that plagues Guardiola year after year. A brilliant manager who somehow freezes on important Champions League nights, despite having won the thing twice.

It’s worth noting in that in his two winning finals with Barcelona, Guardiola basically just selected his strongest side in their most familiar formation.

It’s actually surprising now that Guardiola has not yet overthought his overthinking and ended up playing City’s usual formation and just saying: “lads, go out there and enjoy yourselves.”

But this has not happened, and bafflingly Guardiola keeps making the same mistake every season.

In contrary to what Twitter ‘banter accounts’ (shudders) might have you think though, he is not a ‘bald fraud.’

Guardiola is a superb manager, and one of the greatest of all time. He has helped advance the sport, and put together some brilliant sides which have produced some glorious football.

And that is precisely what makes this persistent flaw that still reoccurs time after time so befuddling.