The Premier League Precipice
Leeds and West Brom have jumped it. Norwich have fallen into it. Bournemouth are dangling over the edge, holding on with the tips of their fingers.
Aston Villa and and Watford are desperately wrestling each other on the edge. And on the other side Brentford, Fulham, Cardiff and Swansea are about to have a showdown - akin the to ‘Tower of Joy’ battle scene from Game of Thrones - to see who gets the chance to scramble across.
Despite the season drawing to a close, there is still a great deal to play for. The Premier League sees a three way battle between Bournemouth, Watford and Aston Villa for relegation. And in the Championship, the playoffs begin roughly 30 minutes after the full time whistle blows on the top flight season.
It’s a slightly chaotic little quirk that finishes off a slightly chaotic season blighted by coronavirus and matches behind closed doors. Where as soon as the main action finishes, the playoffs, Europa League, Champions League then Nations League are all ready to slap you in the face before the 2020/21 season begins in September.
It’s almost as chaotic as the money sucking rat run that is the fight for a Premier League place - across the Championship and bottom half of the Premier League.
Aston Villa spent big last summer, and will desperately need to stay in the Premier League to stop that spend becoming an even greater burden. Fulham also spent big the summer before, failed, and now must desperately climb back up. All part of the ridiculous game of ‘shit or bust’ to get to the Premier League.
Some recent findings from Kieran Maguire, Watford have borrowed money against their 2020/21 broadcast cash. Broadcast cash that won’t be there should they be relegated later today. They lie level with Aston Villa on points, only behind on goal difference. Relegation for either would have severe financial ramifications for both sides.
Bournemouth have gone steady in the Premier League since their promotion in 2015, but have started paying the price for some poor and over expensive recruitment (barring David Brooks) over the past few years. They are three points adrift and look pretty much doomed, despite a spirited performance against Manchester City last time out.
Snapping to take their places are the roster of sides in the Championship playoffs.
Brentford are the ‘good guys’ of the group. A nice stats based approach to recruitment, scouting for bargains to build a top Championship side. Said Benrahma at £2.7 million, Ollie Watkins poached from Exeter for a supposed £1.8 million and Josh Dasilva on a free, to name a few.
Cardiff have a hoofball label after their recent exploits under Neil Warnock before passing onto another Neil associated with hoofball in Neil Harris from Millwall. The Bluebirds have been in excellent form since the restart, and sealed their playoff place with a comfortable 3-0 win over Hull on the final day.
They had started the final day level on points with Nottingham Forest, who instead had been slowly slipping off the pace having been potential top two candidates. While Cardiff eased themselves into the playoffs, Forest somehow managed to blow a three point gap over Swansea as well has a goal difference advantage over the Swans.
It was a gut wrenching failure (bottling) on the final day of the season, and a moment of elation for Swansea as their 4-1 win over Reading helped seal a place in the playoffs. It also set up the possibility of a Cardiff vs Swansea playoff final, something that most people can get behind.
The race for and to stay in the Premier League is enthralling, but financial desperation for it that hovers around most clubs aiming for it is depressing.
If it pays off, the Premier League does bring vast sums of money. But if it doesn’t, it leaves clubs with a giant blackhole sucking in money. It’s just another sad feature of the financially rotten state of football.