Liverpool - last season versus now

As the Premier League season resumes, it’s still baffling to look at the cavernous gap that Liverpool have opened up between themselves and Manchester City in second place.

The Reds currently sit 22 points ahead with 82 points amassed so far, and could have the title wrapped up after a couple of games. If City win each of their remaining games, the most points they can get is 87.

Last season, Liverpool were scintillatingly brilliant as well, but fell short of Man City by a point. So what has been the difference this season?

After 29 games this season, Liverpool have outscored their expected goals (xG) by 4.97. This is pretty much exactly the same as last season after 29 games - having outscored their xG by 5.

The xG against in both seasons after 29 games is similar as well, with Liverpool conceding 7.69 less goals than expected this season compared with 6.66 last season.

So overall, they are clinical with their chances and performing well defensively (and from a goalkeeping perspective) in a similar fashion to last season.

Yet Liverpool have 12 more points this season than last. And are 22.19 points ahead of their expected points total, compared with 6.39 points head last season.

Being a bit ahead on expected goals isn’t anything unexpected. Top teams have top players in attack and defence. So naturally you would expect them to score at a higher rate than average, and concede less.

But the way Liverpool’s results and points outperform what is expected is quite astonishing. It is a testament to their new found ability of always finding a way to win.

Despite an important loss to Man City in January 2019, what really cost Liverpool last season were draws. The Reds’ defeat to City was their only loss of the season, so could well have been recovered from. But a run of four draws in six games between late January and March was ultimately what let first place slip.

That run contained 1-1 draws against Leicester and West Ham, as well as painstaking 0-0s against Everton and Manchester United. Just to rub salt in the wound.

But this season has been different. Think back to stoppage time winners against Leicester and Aston Villa, and Roberto Firmino’s 85th minute strike against Crystal Palace after Wilfred Zaha had equalised minutes earlier.

Or when Tottenham turned up at Anfield intent grinding out a messy result and went ahead inside the first minute, but were eventually clawed back with a penalty from Mohamed Salah sealing the win. And not to forget some lucky moments, such as Dean Henderson’s error which allowed the Reds all three points against a firmly resistant Sheffield United.

It’s worth mentioning Man City’s decline as well. The Citizens have failed to replace Vincent Kompany, and have had a remarkable record of conceding goals from long shots and from almost every shot on target against them in some matches. They’ve also lacked a bit of clinical edge, underscoring their xG by 5.08.

But that shouldn’t take away from this remarkable Liverpool side that has built up such a lead at the top of the Premier League. Yes, some factors have naturally worked in their favour, but the Reds’ incredible ability to churn out win after win this season has been outstanding. It’s something that goes beyond explanation by stats, and logic.

After waiting 30 years for a title, Liverpool are romping to the Premier League in serious style.